India-Pakistan 2025

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This may bring some consolation to many of us...





THE PENTAGON PREPARES
FOR ASIAN WARS
This article written by prominent academic and activist, Walden Bello, is reproduced for study and discussion. Its contents provide a warning that the anti-imperialist struggle embraces peace, as well as trade, the environment and human rights - and that the focus of that straggle is primarily US imperialism.
"Planning for a war with China appears to be quite advanced at the Pentagon. A war in which the US moves to defeat an "unstable" China on an adventurist course that includes occupying more of the Philippines' sea territory and 'intervening in a riot-wracked Indonesia" is one of the scenarios anticipated in a restricted US Department of Defence study entitled 'Asia 2025'.
The study conducted at the US Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, in the summer of 1999, provided one of the key inputs to the recently released Pentagon global strategy document, Joint Vision 2020, which foresees more and more of US military concern shifting to Asia from Europe owing to the rise of China, which it identifies as a "peer competitor".
Participants in the Asia 2025 study included a high level team of defence specialists from the US Army, Marine Corps, and Navy, as well as well known defence analysts Graham Fuller of Rand Corporation, the US Air Force think tank, Aaron Friedberg of Princeton University and Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute.
In each of the five possible scenarios identified by the study, one of the key" recurring geopolitical developments" is the emergence of China as "a force for instability and constant competitor". Another is the rise of India as a regional power that could be a" potential parmer of choice for the United States".
India's potential role as a partner might lead the US to "rethink its strict anti-proliferation policy, as some states that acquire nuclear weapons may actually contribute to American national goals".
As a result of these developments, the US Defence Department faces several key "recurring challenges". One is the necessity of shifting the focus of strategic planning and military resources from Europe to Asia. Another is embarking on a "substantial" strengthening of US military presence in the region which, in contrast to Europe, is said to be marked by a lack of bases, poor infrastructure, inadequate force structure and long distances.
Two Chinese "Operas"
Five possible scenarios are detailed in the report. In the "Unstable China" scenario, foreign adven-turism is an attempt to whip up nationalist sentiments to regain government legitimacy that is being frittered away by a slow-motion economic crash that triggers growing urban and rural unrest.
With the defeat of these Chinese incursions in South East Asia by US naval intervention, Chinese politics enters a tailspin that is accelerated by a "de facto' coup by the military in 2010 that launches China on a new round of expansionism, this time directed at seizing "energy assets" in Siberia, the Russian Far East, and Kazakstan, which ends with Russia and China on the brink of nuclear war.
The Pentagon is also preparing for a "Strong China" scenario. Here, China consolidates its dominance in continental Asia, and carrying out extensive economic penetration of the Russian Far East and Siberia. Continental consolidation is accompanied by a maritime strategy aimed at breaking the US-Japan maritime dominance.
This involves "nibbling away" at the South China Sea islands, Southeast Asia, buying off a weak India, neutralising a unified Korea, isolating Japan, and assuming defacto control of Taiwan.
Through a versatile and sophisticated combination of military threats, selective military action, and opportunistic diplomacy, China is able to achieve the "permanent strategic subservience" of Japan and an end to the US military alliances and presence in Asia.
The end result is an Asia that China dominates but does not conquer or occupy, much along the lines of the pre-colonial system of imperial suzerainty over tributary states, which the report characterises as China's" only positive historic model".
One senses that in the minds of the Pentagon's analysts, this might be the most likely scenario that could transpire, and the most difficult one for Washington since it would involve pitting the US against a foe that makes very calculated moves that do not box it in a position that exposes it to a hardline military reaction, where Washington has the advantage.
The Rise of India
This is the reason why what happens in South Asia is critical to the Pentagon analysts, since India can either be a counterweight to or ally of China.
In the "New South Asian Order", the chronic state of economic and political crisis in Pakistan deepens into anarchy while political and economic reform-strengthens India Islamic forces infiltrate Kashmir, and in a chain reaction of events, India uses conventional strikes against Pakistan's nuclear missiles, provoking a retaliatory nuclear strike by Pakistan.
The US moves in, taking sides by launching conventional strikes against the remaining Pakistani nuclear positions, and warning China to stay out of the conflict.
In a parallel process, the Tallban fail to establish their hegemony in Afghanistan, resulting in its descent into chaos, provoking Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan to move in to annex territory controlled by their ethnic groups. Iran emerges as a key player and this is partly due to the fact that its" moderation and democratisation" have led to an improvement in its relations with the United States.
Pakistan disintegrates alter the war with India, and the Indian Army "moves in to restore order and establish control ". An Indian Confederation emerges that becomes a regional hegemon (a dominant power- ED) that solidifies its ties with Into and the other Gulf States.
China is a big loser from this event. However, it turns its attention to penetrating the Russian Far East, the Indochina peninsula, and other rimlands.
A new regional alliance emerges; its key actors being the US, India and Iran.
"The Asian energy security environment changes fundamentally" , notes the report. "The United States finds unexpected partners, to wit, in India and Iran." "Together, India and Iran take on enhanced SLOC (seal lanes of communications) protection responsibilities, potentially reducing US responsibilities in the Gulf and Indian Ocean".
There are two other scenarios played out in the report, one entitled "Asia re-aligns", the other "The New Sino-Indian Co."
Reading the Pentagon report raises the issue of how the US Defence Department views the Clinton administration's approach towards China, which stresses "engaging that country to allow US
Financial and industrial firms to reap opportunities from exploitation of the China market. The administration, backed by corporate power, and the financial lobby, is also a big force supporting China's entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO), hoping that the application of WTO rules will push China to end its protectionist trade and investment structure and weaken the currently strong state regulation of the operations of the transn tional corporations.
One suspects from 'Asia 2025' that people at the Pentagon are not happy with the current policy, which might be viewed as a way that the country they identify as the US strategic rival could strengthen itself both economically and strategically using investment and trade.
This line of thinking would most likely see China as the net gainer in a stronger economic relationship with the United States. If this is the likely outcome, then the policy is mistaken. One does not strengthen a strategic rival; one cuts it off at the pass.
In short, it is likely that the conflict between "engagement" and "containment" as the strategic approach towards China will come to a head, perhaps in the near future.
What are we in Asia to make of all this ? The lesson is clear: with the consistent identification of China as the US rival in all scenarios, the study speaks volumes about the Pentagon's grim determination to counter any significant threat to US strategic hegemony in Asia."
And What are we in New Zealand to Make of All This?
Considering the fact that the US arms industry is a major part of the US economy, and the United States is an imperialist power, planning for war is inevitable. Part of their war preparations is the domination of its allies, politically, economically and culturally. US influence in NZ is already excessive.
The New Zealand people have paid a very heavy price for involvement in US military adventures, and through the presence of corporations such as Telecom, and Tranzrail. We can expect renewed efforts by US imperialism to deceive New Zealand, once again, in providing the foot soldiers - for the benefit of US Corporate profits. #